HELSINKI – In 2007, Belarus finished eleventh. In 2008, ninth. In 2009, eighth. But what goes up, must come down, and Belarus’s came down faster than they went up. In 2010, the team finished tenth, and last year in Bratislava, 14th, with a must-win game to end the tournament, and keep Belarus in the top division.

Now, they beat Slovenia handily, 7-1, but a similar finish would be a major disappointment to a proud hockey nation preparing to host the World Championship in 2014.

A new head coach, Finnish Kari Heikkilä, will put his stamp on the team, but with 16 players returning from last year’s tournament, the Belarus look will be a familiar one. On the other hand, those 16 will surely do everything in their power to make sure this year’s tournament will end on a better note.

Goalkeepers

Season change, but not the Belarus goaltenders. Andrei Mezin, 37, will be playing in his 14th World Championship, and twelfth in the top division. While his KHL numbers aren’t too impressive – 2.85 GAA, and 89.9 save percentage – they’re on par with his previous seasons, including 2009 when he was voted Best Goaltender in the World Championship in Switzerland. He seems to bring his best game to the national team.

However, he may not be the starting goaltender this time around. Vitali Koval has a good KHL season with Torpedo Nizhni Novgorod behind him. The 32-year-old posted the second-lowest GAA of the league, 1.75, and the fourth-best save percentage, 93.0. In 2010, he and Mezin split the games, with both getting three, but Mezin outshone him.

Last year, it was Mezin’s net from beginning to end, but it was an off-year for him. This year, Belarus has two goaltenders they can trust.

Defence

One of the big reasons for Belarus’s off-year last year – the team finished 14th, their lowest since 2003 – can be attributed to the fact that Ruslan Salei didn’t patrol on their blueline. Salei, who perished in the Lokomotiv Yaroslavl plane crash in September, carried the team in both 2009 and 2010, playing almost half the games in the tournaments. Now, tragically, there will be no Salei on the team, and Belarus will have to try to find others to fill the void.

Last year, playing sans Salei, the defenceman who got the most ice time was Dynamo Minsk’s Dmitri Korobov, 23, one of six returning defensemen from last year’s team. He also scored two goals and five points in six games, tied for third in team scoring. Viktor Kostyuchyonok led the team in plus/minus last year, with +5, while playing 21 minutes a game.

They will have to get it done by committee.

Offence

Of the eight Dynamo Minsk forwards attending the last World Championship camp, the leading Belarusian scorer in the KHL was Andrei Stas, tied with Alexander Kulakov, both with 8+10=18 points – Stas in 42 games, Kulakov in 53. The leading Belarusian scorer in the KHL was Amur Khabarovsk’s Andrei Stepanov who scored 20 points in 53 games.

That means one thing: Mikhail Grabovski will be carrying a heavy load in Helsinki. The Toronto Maple Leaf always plays a lot – a lot – in the national team, in all situations. He was the team captain last year, he quarterbacks the power play, he plays the first and the last minutes of the games, and he kills penalties, to the point that it might even cut into his offensive production.

But he will have to do it all in 2012, too.

Coach

For head coach Kari Heikkilä, the tournament will be memorable regardless of the results, since the native of Finland will be coaching his first World Championship game against... Finland. The 52-year-old Finn won the Finnish title with Kärpät Oulu before becoming the first Finn in the Russian league when he took over Lokomotiv Yaroslavl in 2004.

He took over the Belarus national team this season, having coached Metallurg Magnitogorsk in 2009-10, and he recently also signed to coach Dynamo Minsk in the KHL, making the Belarusian team the third KHL team Heikkilä has coached.

With his background in the KHL, Heikkilä knows what he’s got on the bench. His teams are disciplined and hard working – something that Belarus is known for.

Projected results

Belarus needs top-end goaltending from Mezin or Koval. Both have the potential to take the team to at least knocking on the quarterfinal door. They also need a red-hot Grabovski to score key goals against key opponents. It would seem that Belarus is in a no-man’s land, not strong enough to get to the playoff stage, but strong enough to keep the relegation bogeyman at a distance. A finish in the top ten would be expected, especially after the last year’s downward slide.

RISTO PAKARINEN